Network Modeling for Post-Entry Management of Invasive Pest Species in the Philippines: The Case of the Colorado Potato Beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).

Crop shifting is considered as an important strategy to secure future food supply in the face of climate change. However, use of this adaptation strategy needs to consider the risk posed by changes in the geographic range of pests that feed on selected crops. Failure to account for this threat can lead to disastrous results. Models can be used to give insights on how best to manage these risks. In this paper, the socioecological process graph technique is used to develop a network model of interactions among crops, invasive pests, and biological control agents. The model is applied to a prospective analysis of the potential entry of the Colorado potato beetle into the Philippines just as efforts are being made to scale up potato cultivation as a food security measure. The modeling scenarios indicate the existence of alternative viable pest control strategies based on the use of biological control agents. Insights drawn from the model can be used as the basis to ecologically engineer agricultural systems that are resistant to pests.

Prediction model for biochar energy potential based on biomass properties and pyrolysis conditions derived from rough set machine learning.

Biochar is a high-carbon-content organic compound that has potential applications in the field of energy storage and conversion. It can be produced from a variety of biomass feedstocks such as plant-based, animal-based, and municipal waste at different pyrolysis conditions. However, it is difficult to produce biochar on a large scale if the relationship between the type of biomass, operating conditions, and biochar properties is not understood well. Hence, the use of machine learning-based data analysis is necessary to find the relationship between biochar production parameters and feedstock properties with biochar energy properties. In this work, a rough set-based machine learning (RSML) approach has been applied to generate decision rules and classify biochar properties. The conditional attributes were biomass properties (volatile matter, fixed carbon, ash content, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen) and pyrolysis conditions (operating temperature, heating rate residence time), while the decision attributes considered were yield, carbon content, and higher heating values. The rules generated were tested against a set of validation data and evaluated for their scientific coherency. Based on the decision rules generated, biomass with ash content of 11-14 wt%, volatile matter of 60-62 wt% and carbon content of 42-45.3 wt% can generate biochar with promising yield, carbon content and higher heating value via a pyrolysis process at an operating temperature of 425°C-475°C. This work provided the optimal biomass feedstock properties and pyrolysis conditions for biochar production with high mass and energy yield.

Industrial water network vulnerability analysis using dynamic inoperability input-output model.

Industrial parks provide opportunities for Process Integration among different enterprises. Inter-Plant Water Network Integration is an effective strategy for water conservation. However, increased interplant linkages can make the entire system vulnerable to cascading failures in case of loss of water flow in some plants. The potential indirect impact of water shortages on such integrated systems may not be evident without the use of appropriate models. This work defines inoperability as the fractional loss of water flow relative to normal operations. A comparison between the applicability of demand-driven versus supply-driven Inoperability Input-output Model (IIM) is conducted. Then, a Vulnerability Assessment Framework which integrates vulnerability indicators into the Dynamic Input-Output Model (DIIM) is developed to analyse failure propagation in water networks in an industrial park. The DIIM is then applied to simulate the cascading effects of disturbances. From a time perspective, the vulnerabilities of the industrial parks With Integrated Optimal Water Network (WWN) and Without Integrated Optimal Water Network (WOWN) are assessed considering robustness, adaptability, and recoverability as the indicators. The results indicate that supply-driven IIM is more suitable for cascading failure analysis of water networks. The average inoperability at 16% from supply-driven IIM is higher than that from demand-driven IIM. In the freshwater disturbance scenario, the dependence of the plant on freshwater is proportional to the rate of inoperability change, the time to reach a new equilibrium. In this study, the robustness of WWN is about fivefold that of WOWN, but the recovery rate is only one-sixth of the latter. This work can help identify system vulnerabilities and provide a scientific insight for the development of park-wide water management strategies.

Modelling vicious networks with P-graph causality maps.

P-graph causality maps were recently proposed as a methodology for systematic analysis of intertwined causal chains forming network-like structures. This approach uses the bipartite representation of P-graph to distinguish system components ("objects" represented by O-type nodes) from the functions they perform ("mechanisms" represented by M-type nodes). The P-graph causality map methodology was originally applied for determining structurally feasible causal networks to enable a desirable outcome to be achieved. In this work, the P-graph causality map methodology is extended to the analysis of vicious networks (i.e., causal networks with adverse outcomes). The maximal structure generation algorithm is first used to assemble the problem elements into a complete causal network; the solution structure generation algorithm is then used to enumerate all structurally feasible causal networks. Such comprehensive analysis gives insights on how to deactivate vicious networks through the removal of keystone objects and mechanisms. The extended methodology is illustrated with an ex post analysis of the 1984 Bhopal industrial disaster. Prospects for other applications to sustainability issues are also discussed.

Forecasting plastic waste generation and interventions for environmental hazard mitigation.

Plastic waste and its environmental hazards have been attracting public attention as a global sustainability issue. This study builds a neural network model to forecast plastic waste generation of the EU-27 in 2030 and evaluates how the interventions could mitigate the adverse impact of plastic waste on the environment. The black-box model is interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for managerial insights. The dependence on predictors (i.e., energy consumption, circular material use rate, economic complexity index, population, and real gross domestic product) and their interactions are discussed. The projected plastic waste generation of the EU-27 is estimated to reach 17 Mt/y in 2030. With an EU targeted recycling rate (55%) in 2030, the environmental impacts would still be higher than in 2018, especially global warming potential and plastic marine pollution. This result highlights the importance of plastic waste reduction, especially for the clustering algorithm-based grouped countries with a high amount of untreated plastic waste per capita. Compared to the other assessed scenarios, Scenario 4 with waste reduction (50% recycling, 47.6% energy recovery, 2.4% landfill) shows the lowest impact in acidification, eutrophication, marine aquatic toxicity, plastic marine pollution, and abiotic depletion. However, the global warming potential (8.78 Gt CO2eq) is higher than that in 2018, while Scenario 3 (55% recycling, 42.6% energy recovery, 2.4% landfill) is better in this aspect than Scenario 4. This comprehensive analysis provides pertinent insights into policy interventions towards environmental hazard mitigation.

Dataset for off-grid micro-hydroelectric community system under drought conditions.

This submission contains the complete balanced process matrix of an off-grid community system primarily powered by a micro-hydroelectric powerplant. The system is meant to provide the needs of the community for electricity, potable water and ice. The system also considers the provision of a diesel engine generator set as a back-up to provide electricity. The data serves as inputs to simulate the performance of the system under different drought scenarios. The data provided here is in support of the co-submitted article of Aviso et al. [1].

Data set and model code on the optimal operating state of a negative emission polygeneration system.

This article contains the data set and model code for the negative emission polygeneration system described in Tan et al. (2019). The data was generated utilizing an optimization model implemented in LINGO 18.0 and includes information on the operating state of each process unit in the system. The maximum annual profit of the system was determined at different carbon footprint targets. The data set and model code can be utilized for further analysis on the interdependence between the process units of this polygeneration system, its operational and environmental performance, and the potential impact of integrating new process units into the network.